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Conditions:
1- Algeria will qualify with points difference
if Egypt lost or drew in Cairo.
2- A 1-0 win or Egypt will result in Algeria
advancing to World Cup with goals difference as they will
have 9/3 while Egypt will have 8/4 which gives Algeria +6
goals difference while Egypt will be at +4.
3- A 2-0 for Egypt (Also 3-1, 4-2, 5-3 ..etc)
will make both sides equal. Egypt will have 9/4 which means
a +5 goals difference while Algeria will have the exact number
of goals scored and conceded 9/4 (+5 goals difference). I
n this scenario, a draw by the FIFA organizing Committee or
a play off match will decide which team will go to World Cup.
In case of playoff, it should be played on the
18th of November on a neutral pitch.
4- A 3-0 win for Egypt (Also 4-1, 5-2...etc)
will grant Egypt the qualification ticket to South Africa
with superior goals difference since the Pharaohs will have
10/4 (+6 goals difference) while Algeria will have 9/5 (+4
goals difference).
Note: As we can see, away goals rule
is not valid in deciding the group winner and so, Mohamed
Abotreka's goal in Algeria will only count as a normal goal.
Chances:
Egypt's win in Zambia gave the Pharaohs hope
once more. However, Algeria remains in a better position unless
Egypt manage to take a two goals lead in the game.
In the current situation, Egypt's chances are
around 30%. Hopefully, during the match on the 14th of November,
If Egypt managed to take the lead by two goals, at that moment,
the odds will be equal since both teams will have a 50/50
chance to qualify.
Of course, having a three goals lead in the
game will boost Egypt's chances to 90% during the game. A
win by this margin is possible if the Pharaohs can play at
their best. In 2008, Egypt scored four goals against Cameroon
and won by four goals to one against Ivory Coast and so, defeating
inferior Algeria by this margin is not a wild dream.
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